Since the beginning of this year, under the internal and external economic situation, where the difficulties have increased and the challenges are severe, the machinery industry has conscientiously implemented the strategic deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and actively responded and took the initiative. In the first half of the year, the economic operation of the industry continued the trend of stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year. The overall situation was better than expected at the beginning of the year, and the main economic indicators maintained a slight upward trend. At the same time, however, it must be noted that there are still many uncertain factors affecting the economic operation of the industry. The downward trend of investment has not stopped, and the situation of weak foreign trade demand has not improved significantly. The downward pressure on the operation of the industry is still relatively large.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the macro-control policies and the policy measures that are conducive to the machinery industry, the economic operation of the industry will be expected to continue to stabilize.
I. Main operating characteristics in the first half of the year (I) The growth rate of added value is higher than that of the national industry. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of value added of the machinery industry has changed from the growth rate of the industry and manufacturing industry in the previous year to higher than the growth rate of the national industry and manufacturing industry. . From January to June, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was 1.8 percentage points higher than the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period, and 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the machinery industry in the same period of last year.
(II) Stabilization of economic benefits The main business income of machinery industry in January-June was 11.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, which was 3.21 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The total profit reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, 6.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The main profit indicators of the machinery industry showed a trend of stabilization.
Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of the main business income and profit of the machinery industry is 3.55 and 0.33 percentage points higher than that of the national industry.
(III) Half of product output growth Among the 119 major products monitored by the machinery industry in the first half of the year, the number of products that achieved year-on-year growth increased month by month. By June, the cumulative number of products that achieved year-on-year growth was 60, accounting for 50.42%; 59 products with a year-on-year decline in output, accounting for 49.58%.
Specifically, the output continues to decline mainly in metal smelting equipment, machine tools, power generation equipment, oil drilling equipment and other investment products; optical instruments, cameras and other products; as well as tractors, harvesting machinery and other agricultural machinery that have maintained rapid growth in the early stage. product. The main growth of production is the products closely related to consumption, technology upgrading and environmental protection, such as automobiles, electrical instruments, automobile instruments, power capacitors related to power transmission and transformation, high-voltage switchgear, optical cables, special equipment for environmental pollution control, etc.; Parts such as molds, pneumatic components, metal seals, etc.
(IV) Key industries play an active role Although the main economic indicators of the machinery industry show a stabilizing trend, the division of operation between industries is more prominent, and the construction machinery industry is still generally difficult, especially the decline in the efficiency of large and medium-sized enterprises has not changed. The loss side continues to expand. The operating rate of the heavy mining industry has declined, and some industries have been stable in the industry. Some enterprises have lost money, and some enterprises have changed production or stopped production. Orders in the petrochemical general machinery industry continued to be insufficient, and industry profits continued to decline. The machine tool industry is still in a downturn, and the profit of metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industry decreased by 22.12%.
As the two key industries of the machinery industry, the automobile industry and the electrical and electronic industry have played a pulling role in promoting the smooth progress of the machinery industry, driven by market demand, favorable policies and large-scale upgrading of power generation and power transmission and transformation.
From January to June, the main business income of the automotive industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the electrical and electronic industry increased by 8.21% year-on-year. The other machinery industries excluding the automobile and electrical appliances industry grew by 3.41% year-on-year; The automobile industry accounted for 48.91%, the electrical and electronic industry accounted for 28.88%, and other industries accounted for only 22.21%.
From January to June, the profit of the automobile industry increased by 6.34% year-on-year, and that of the electrical and electronic industry increased by 15.13%, while other machinery industries except the automobile and electrical appliances industry only increased by 2.44% year-on-year; among the new profits of the whole industry, the automobile industry accounted for 41.31%, the electrical and electronic industry accounted for 44.33%, and other industries accounted for only 14.36%.
(V) Investment growth continued to fall. From January to June, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 9% year-on-year, and the manufacturing industry increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The investment in machinery industry only increased by 3.07%, the lowest growth rate since 2008, the month of June. The amount of completed investment has decreased year on year.
From the trend point of view, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the machinery industry has been in a downward trend. The cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year has dropped by 7.86 percentage points from January to February. Among them, the investment growth rate for the purchase of equipment and tools has also continued to decline, and has decreased to 1.56% year-on-year in January-June. The decline in corporate investment will directly affect future market demand and must be highly concerned. Â
(VI) The foreign trade situation is not optimistic. The total import and export volume of the machinery industry in January-June was 309.8 billion US dollars, down 6.88% year-on-year, of which imports were 127.8 billion US dollars, down 7.51% year-on-year, and exports were 182 billion US dollars, down 6.42% year-on-year.
In particular, private enterprises that used to be the main force in the export of foreign trade in the machinery industry have continued to decline in export growth this year, which has dropped from the previous double-digit growth to negative growth, down 0.66% year-on-year in January-June.
In addition, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other major exporting countries have also experienced negative growth. Exports in January-June were down 3.54%, 2.55% and 5.47% respectively. The machinery industry has a relatively large export pressure on foreign trade.
(VII) Unstable market demand This year, the accumulated orders of key enterprises in the machinery industry have been free from the trend of continuous decline in the previous year. The cumulative orders in January-June increased by 4.81% year-on-year, but the order situation was unstable. The main reasons are as follows: First, due to the accumulation of a large amount of social stocks in the market during the high-speed growth stage in the early stage, the new construction projects have limited effect on the market. Second, the upstream industries such as steel, coal, building materials, and petroleum industries are in a downturn, and demand for machinery and equipment is declining.
Second, the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading Under the guidance of the "China Manufacturing 2025" strong country strategy and other related industrial policies, the transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry, innovation and development continued to advance.
(1) Independent research and development to achieve breakthroughs in large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC-DC and flexible DC transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for oil and gas long-distance pipelines, key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry, high-end CNC machine tools and other high-end equipment Make a breakthrough. For example, the national key project “Five-axis linkage blade CNC grinding machine†led by Qinchuan Machine Tool passed the acceptance test. The nuclear reactor coolant pump unit equipment independently developed by Harbin Power Group passed the acceptance test. Hangyang Group provided the 4 million tons coal-to-oil project of Ningmei Coal. The 6 sets of 100,000 cubic meters ultra-large air separation unit and the first domestic large-scale air separation compressor unit developed by Shengu Group are being installed and commissioned on site. The first set of 1.2 million tons/year ethylene three-machine test developed by Shengu Group was successfully completed. The first large-diameter polyethylene centrifuge equipment developed by Northeast Refining & Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance test. The world's largest broken rectangular pipe jacking machine independently developed and manufactured by China Railway Engineering Group was launched. The first domestic full hydraulic drilling rig developed by Wuzhong was delivered in Tibet. use. In the basic field, high-voltage insulating bushings, transformer outlet devices, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, and large-scale power plant forgings have made new progress in the localization of key basic components and core components that have long relied on imports. For example, the 1000KV outlet device passed the new product appraisal, and the “Hualong No.1†main pipeline and the main steam safety valve were respectively identified, and the third-generation nuclear power plant 1E-class shutdown circuit breaker screen passed the appraisal.
(II) Steady progress in innovation capacity building Due to the continued downturn in the traditional product market, innovation and development has become an independent choice of more and more mechanical enterprises. Enterprises' investment in innovation capacity building and innovation model exploration has increased significantly.
The construction of the basic test and testing platform for new product development has progressed. Platforms such as large compressor test benches, water wheel model test benches, and power station safety valve test benches have been built. The world's advanced test and testing platforms are still under construction. For example, TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. will build a new R&D and manufacturing center for ±1100kV world's highest voltage grade AC/DC power transmission and transformation equipment, adding high-end surge generators, DC high voltage generators, precision transformers and capacitor towers. The experimental equipment will meet the production test needs of the world's highest voltage grade transformer products in the future.
The pace of collaborative innovation is accelerating, and cooperation between mechanical enterprises and user companies, research institutes in the research and development of technological research institutes is more closely and frequently. The cooperation model has been updated, and the cooperation and research and development have achieved remarkable results.
(III) Start of intelligent manufacturing In recent years, the pace of digitalization and information construction in China's manufacturing industry has accelerated, the construction of automated production lines and digital workshops has accelerated, and the level of informationization in production, operation and management has been continuously improved. The power plant of the above-mentioned Hai Electric Power Equipment Co., Ltd. completed the research and development of the digital prototype project of 1300MW nuclear power generator, realizing a new breakthrough in the digital three-dimensional design of the factory; Guangli Nuclear and other companies jointly completed the first digital instrument control system of nuclear power plant with complete independent intellectual property rights in China. The development of the (DCS) platform and the application of the results in the second, second and third generation nuclear power projects. In addition, under the synergy of information technology such as the Internet and cloud computing, as well as the rapid development of sensing technology and control technology, intelligent manufacturing has begun. Taking industrial robots as an example, according to statistics from the China Robot Industry Alliance, China has become the world's largest consumer market for industrial robots for three consecutive years.
(IV) Actively exploring new paths for transformation and development The transformation of traditional enterprises into manufacturing services continued to advance, and the service model continued to innovate. At present, the service-oriented manufacturing of the machinery industry has been fully extended to 13 subordinate industries, achieving a complete service chain from R&D and design to product recycling and remanufacturing, and has emerged as Weichai Power Group, Hangzhou Oxygen Machine Group, and Zhejiang Zhongzhong. A number of typical and demonstration enterprises such as Control Technology Co., Ltd.
At the end of July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China National Machinery Association jointly held the "Development of Service-oriented Manufacturing Special Action Guidelines", a number of corporate exchanges showed that service-oriented manufacturing in the machinery industry is actively promoting, new formats and new models are emerging. . The development of service-oriented manufacturing has become an important way for the transformation and upgrading of machinery industry enterprises.
III. Forecast of the whole year's trend (1) Positive factors First, the supply-side structural reform policy effect gradually emerges, and the industrial economy is generally stable, which is conducive to the mechanical industry to maintain a stable and good operating trend.
Second, the industrial policy environment is conducive to the industry to promote structural adjustment. In particular, the relevant supporting policies of "Made in China 2025" and the introduction of policies and measures to promote the transformation and increase efficiency of the machinery industry provide a good development environment for the development of the machinery industry and boost the confidence and determination of the whole industry.
(II) The challenge is that the downward pressure on economic operation is still very large. The weak market situation of domestic demand for mechanical products is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The steel, coal, electric power, petroleum, chemical and other industries that the machinery industry mainly serves are generally “de-capacityâ€. During the deep adjustment period, demand is difficult to recover in the short term.
Second, after years of rapid development, the social holdings of various types of mechanical products have reached a considerable scale. While releasing the demand for maintenance market, the demand for new equipment has also been reduced.
Third, the pressure on the export situation of the industry is relatively high, market competition is fierce, trade frictions are intensifying, prices are falling, and profits are falling, making it difficult for exports to rebound. Â
In summary, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2016 will continue to stabilize in the fourth quarter of last year. On the basis of overall stability in the second half of the year, there will be small fluctuations in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry will be slightly higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry. The main business income and profits will keep growing at the same time, and the export growth rate will not be lower than last year's decline.
2016 is the first year of the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and the first year of the comprehensive construction of a well-off society. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the strategic deployment of the central government, accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, further enhance the vitality and innovation of economic growth, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the machinery industry.
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