On the eve of Guangzhou Yaohao: successively issuing compensation and support policies

At 9 o'clock on the August 27th, Guangzhou limit card for the first time Yaohao. One hour later, under the supervision of notary officers, deputies to the National People's Congress, members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), representatives of the people, and representatives of the applicants, 5460 new Guangzhou minibus indicators were shaken out in four sessions.

Mr. Liu, one of the 12 randomly selected Yaohao applicants, rushed to the scene to participate in the Yaohao early, but in the end he did not win the election. "I hope the luck will be better next time." The tone seemed calm.

There are a lot of people who are not as successful as Mr. Liu. According to data from the Guangzhou Municipal Office for Medium and Small Vehicles Incremental Indicator Management (City Indicators Office), a total of 58,805 people participated in the Yaohao and auction in August, and 6544 new license plates will be shaken out.

Many people on the scene worry that a large part of the individuals and units involved in the Yaohao will come from car dealerships, shake up a lot of license plate numbers, and then rent out the license plates, which can increase their car sales, but it also increases Consumer car costs.

The automobile is a pillar industry in Guangzhou, and the impact of limit licensing on the local automobile industry is beyond doubt. When many citizens are keeping an eye on the lukewarm numbers, relevant departments of the Guangzhou government have begun to study and support the potentially affected auto industry.

The Triple Random Method To ensure fairness as much as possible, the Yaohao method is complicated. The Guangzhou Yaohao process adopted the triple stochastic method similar to that in Beijing: random numbers for shake numbers, random numbers for shake numbers, and random results for shake numbers.

The specific approach is that, from the public who signed up for the Yaohao this month, 12 Yaohao players were randomly selected. Six of them were on site supervision and the other six were involved in the shake. The six citizens participating in the Yaohao will randomly draw and select the ballots on the spot. A kind of Yaohao rule was adopted. Finally, according to this rule, 6544 vehicle license plates were shaken out.

The difference from the Beijing Yaohao is that the above-mentioned process will be carried out in four separate phases. They are 654 ordinary license plate units, 4800 ordinary license plates, and 130 new energy license plates and 960 new energy license plates.

However, Guangzhou’s policy of swaying new energy vehicles and encouraging the purchase of new energy vehicles during the first shakeup did not have the expected effect. In the August application, only 170 individuals and 16 units were applied to apply for the new energy automotive brand. Therefore, there are 904 new energy car brand wheels, which will be included in the next round of ordinary license plate numbers.

According to the number of declaring Yaos and the number of planned Yaos, it can be estimated that the lowest winning percentage will not exceed 1:8.9, that is, the lowest winning rate in the Yaoshao is about 11.2%.

Many applicants were rather frustrated after failing to win the election. “The whole morning was questioned by the computer to see if they had won the lottery, but in the end it wasn’t.” There was no patronage of the lucky god, and Mr. Shi, who planned to buy a car, was a little sad.

According to a person in charge of an auto dealer at the Guangzhou Racecourse Auto City, “Sales will certainly decline, but the specific number of declines will have to wait and see. Then we will make some specific adjustments.”

At 9 o'clock on the 28th, Guangzhou license plate auctioned 4363 license plates, including 523 units and 3840 individuals. The reserve price Set by the auction is 10,000 yuan.

The tendency of official car purchases from Guangqi alone is only 11.2% from the success rate. Moreover, according to Beijing's experience, the more applicants that accumulate in the future, the lower the chance of winning the countersign and the large amount of potential consumption will be suppressed.

On August 25, the Beijing Passenger Car Index Regulatory and Management Office stated that, after review, over 1.05 million applicants this month had been qualified for the purchase of a car. This was the first time that the Beijing No. 1 Army exceeded the million mark for the first time, with a winning ratio of 52.8:1.

“The impact on the Guangzhou auto industry is now foreseeable, especially for several local auto manufacturers. The base camp is often the best-selling area, and sales decline is positive,” said a Guangzhou auto maker.

Although the Guangzhou government believes that the impact on local auto companies will be limited, it still attracts much attention. On the eve of the Yaoqian, Guangzhou successively issued several measures favorable to domestic auto brands in an attempt to ease their dissatisfaction.

Recently, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Finance issued the “Notes on the Budgeting and Purchase of Official Vehicles for Municipal Administrative Institutions” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notes”), which stipulates that Guangzhou’s official cars, commercial vehicles and off-road vehicles must be purchased locally. For the nine models, the proportion of Guangzhou Automobile “Chuanqi” cars purchased shall not be less than 60%. If the units that purchased or replaced one new car are eliminated during the year, they will be designated to purchase Guangzhou Automobile’s “Xiangqi” car.

In addition to the Chinese-Pakistan (including vans), minivans, and other special vehicles (such as ambulances) that are not manufactured in all manufacturers in Guangzhou, cars and off-road vehicles have been designated as Guangzhou manufacturers' production brands. There are two SUVs, two broad-based front-end models and Odyssey models, one from Guangfeng, another from Dongfeng Nissan, and one from Sylphy and Qijun.

In Guangzhou's “Three Publics” consumption, the purchase and maintenance of buses accounted for 80% of the total. "Guangzhou's bus procurement is completely designated as a local brand and there are local protectionism suspects," said an insider of a car brand that could not be selected.

Among them, Guangzhou Automobile Group’s self-owned brands will benefit the most. GAC General Manager Wu Song has been the main driver of the purchase of official vehicles, and has been promoted in the procurement of many local government official vehicles. Guangzhou’s move will set a precedent for this. “Some of the PRD’s local governments that have been in contact with the PRD may follow suit,” said Guangqi Chuanxi, an insider.

The automobile approval system has threatened to build Guangzhou in the East Detroit, and the automobile industry has already reached a certain scale. In this year's macroeconomic slowdown, Guangzhou's GDP growth has failed to meet its target, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the annual growth target. The land finances were in a downturn. In the first half of the year, revenue from land sales in Guangzhou decreased by 42%.

However, thanks to the development of the automobile industry, Guangzhou's economy is not vulnerable. In the first half of the year, it still maintained a GDP growth rate of 8.3%. According to statistics released by the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the output value of the automotive industry in the three major industrial pillar industries in Guangzhou during the first half of the year increased by 17.9% year-on-year, becoming the most important driving force for the industrial growth in Guangzhou in the first half of the year.

However, the introduction of new car projects in Guangzhou appears to be weak. The Infiniti project, which was tracked by the relevant departments in Guangzhou for many years, eventually settled in Xiangyang in the first half of the year. The Renault project, which is considered to eventually settle in Huadu, may also want to use another good wood. After the limit of licensing, the development environment of the Guangzhou automobile industry is even more questioned.

Chen Jianhua, mayor of Guangzhou, frankly stated that the introduction of the license plate purchase order is a painful choice for the government. As metropolitan diseases get heavier, Guangzhou must make choices in resolving congestion, deterioration of air quality, and development of the economic industry.

The worries about the auto industry have led Guangzhou's senior executives to start to support the industrial policy. In order to ease doubts on the development environment of the automobile industry, on August 20th, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued the "Guangdong Provincial People's Government Catalogue for the Reform of the 2012 Administrative Examination and Approval System (First Batch)", involving a number of automotive industries, including cancellations. The Guangdong Provincial Department of Supervision examines the examination and approval system for general official vehicles, and moves from fixed approval to budgetary final accounts management; it simplifies the process of entry approval for auto manufacturers. The relevant departments of Guangdong Province canceled the preliminary examination of the admittance of automobile production enterprises, and incorporated the administrative examination and approval items "non-administrative licenses, preliminary examinations and on-site inspections" of non-administrative licenses.

In addition, Guangzhou, which has made difficult choices in environmental and economic development, has begun to vigorously promote the new energy automotive industry. On August 7, the Guangzhou Municipal Government passed the "Guangzhou Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan" and proposed to focus on the development of three new billion-level emerging industrial clusters such as the new energy automobile industry, and accelerate the promotion of hybrid vehicles and components. , R&D and manufacturing of highly efficient energy storage batteries, motors, and electronic control systems, focusing on the development and industrialization of complete electric vehicles and key components of pure electric vehicles.

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