"Price war" restarts power battery companies to welcome the "winter"

Previously, the fourth quarter had been an annual outbreak and impulse stage for power battery manufacturers. On the one hand, the demand for the electric vehicle market was far more than normal at the end of the year, while the supply of power battery market was always tight, so the sales growth at the end of the year was significant. However, this situation has been difficult to sustain this year.

According to statistics, for 2017Q1, Q2, and Q3, the domestic power battery production was 6.42Gwh, 11.97Gwh, and 13.25Gwh, respectively. The corresponding installed capacity data are 1.27Gwh, 4.5Gwh, and 8.9Gwh, respectively. From the perspective of market supply and demand performance, the rapid expansion of production capacity of large-scale battery manufacturers has further aggravated the contradiction of overcapacity.

The cost advantages brought by the large-scale battery manufacturers' technology, procurement, and scale production are obvious. The market space gradually explores the low-end market. The low-end and mid-end production capacity enters the cruel phase-out phase. Only the performance and price of the battery products are dominant, and the company can Survive. According to related statistics, over 200 products were imported from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the new energy vehicle promotion catalog last year, and only 90 are used in this year.

In the mid-to-high-end market, competition between large-scale battery manufacturers is also being intensified due to the deepening of the market competition environment and the industrial structure. On the one hand, major companies' planning capacity will enter the heavy volume in the next three years, and the supply gap for high-end production capacity will gradually increase. For the major battery manufacturers, whether or not they can consolidate and expand the market within this window period is directly related to their position in the future industrial structure, and the competition in product performance and price in the high-end market will also become increasingly fierce. .

On the other hand, in the golden period when the market is consolidating, major battery manufacturers are eager to consolidate and expand the market. The key to competition is to meet the price reduction demand of auto makers. Starting this year, although high-end capacity supply is still in short supply, lithium battery companies have actively reduced Battery price. Taking the Ningde era as an example, we can see from the prospectus that the average sales price of the power battery system is 1.52 yuan/wh, a year-on-year drop of 20%. Other large and medium-sized battery manufacturers must keep prices down in order to keep their customers. Some manufacturers take the initiative to occupy the market and even reduce prices by 30%.

A power battery industry insiders said that the current cost of power battery system can generally be achieved 1.2-1.3 yuan / Wh. If the market average price of Ningde era is 1.52 yuan/wh, the profit rate is between 17% and 27%. Although the profit rate of the power battery company in the first tier can still be maintained at around 30%, but under the long-term account period and the continued upward trend in raw material prices, it is also facing a lot of financial pressure. As for the second and third tier battery manufacturers, the operating pressure is naturally more prominent, and they face the situation where they have to reduce costs through various management, production, and technical means. Therefore, it is not only for small and medium-sized enterprises, but also for large-scale enterprises. It will be very difficult this year to be a "fat year."

From the production and sales data, in October 2017, the total installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicles was approximately 2.93GWh, and the top ten power battery shipments totaled 2.27GWh, accounting for 77% of the market. At the end of the year, the market concentration will further increase. After all, the customer's requirements for battery performance continue to increase, and in 2018 the pressure for subsidy to fall further and battery prices fall further is imminent. The energy of the battery manufacturers must concentrate on improving quality and reduce costs. Not market volume, most of the small and medium battery manufacturers at the end of the year's shipments will inevitably be further compressed.

The industry reshuffle of the power battery market will obviously come under the impetus of industry and policies, and the rapid elimination of “models” among enterprises has also begun. In the next stage of staking and clearance, the price war is undoubtedly the most effective weapon.