Excessive industry highlights power battery or polarization

With the new energy subsidy policy landing on the eve of the New Year's Eve, the new energy vehicle industry chain, which has been adjusted for more than half a year, has been moving. However, due to the frenzied expansion in 2016, the industry chain segment has been mixed.

It was learned from relevant channels that on January 6, the external quotation of lithium carbonate producers for power batteries generally increased by 1,000 to 3,000 yuan.

In 2016, the new energy vehicle policy adjustment year was affected. As a result, the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell sharply, resulting in a 24-year decline in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate since April last year. This is the first time in eight months that lithium carbonate producers have raised prices.

However, Bai Huan information analyst Qin Huanping is not optimistic about the price increase. "There were rumors that the company's quotation increased by 500 yuan in the first two days, but the actual price has not been sold. Although the inventory has dropped more, there is no big gap between supply and demand." She analyzed that the company's price increase is more of a state of mind, indicating that the New Deal will be optimistic about the future. The willingness to price.

As of January 2017, the market price of lithium carbonate for batteries has not increased, and the market has a wait-and-see attitude.

There is also cobalt that can't be stopped. One of the biggest changes in the New Deal is the very high demand for cruising range. In order to meet the new requirements, the power battery cathode material will be transformed from the current mainstream lithium iron phosphate route to the ternary route, namely nickel-cobalt lithium. Cobalt has become the upgraded material for lithium batteries that has been expected by the public. In 2016, the new production of ternary materials soared. To this end, starting in July last year, the price of cobalt has been moving, and the price of cobalt sulfate for power batteries has risen by more than 50%.

Cobalt is currently mainly used in the field of 3C electronics. Due to long-term oversupply, cobalt prices have been hovering at the bottom since 2008. For the rapid increase in cobalt prices, Shanghai Color Network analyst He Congying believes that more is the market speculation expectations, the industry supply and demand is not in short supply. If you consider the storage factors this year, there is still a surplus. At present, the industry is in the early stage of destocking, and there are not many orders near the Spring Festival. However, cobalt resources are scarce, supply is relatively monopolized, and prices are easily speculated.

As the world's largest demander of power batteries, about 90% of China's cobalt raw materials are imported from the Congo. Affected by the recent political turmoil in Congo, the country’s imports of cobalt raw materials have fallen sharply this year.

The slower expansion of lithium and cobalt mines has made the industry more sensitive to price changes. On the demand side, industry research analyst Gao Xiaobing believes that the restart of the new energy vehicle market is expected to be at least one month, and the growth of new energy vehicle sales in 2017 is expected to be only between 50% and 100%. At this stage, the price increase of lithium and cobalt is not caused by demand.

Compared with the rise of upstream mine prices, other products of power batteries are not so happy. The reporter learned that the electrolyte, diaphragm and so on are still in the price reduction channel, and the recent offer has not risen. Due to the substantial expansion in the last two years, overcapacity of power batteries and related materials has begun to emerge. According to the data, the first half of 2017 was an intensive production period of lithium hexafluorophosphate and separator. The new capacity of the diaphragm will double. The electrolyte capacity has increased by about 60%.

In 2017, the new energy vehicle market returned to normal, and it will have a certain amount of excess capacity for digesting power batteries. However, Gao Xiaobing predicted that under the pressure of overcapacity, price competition and raw material price increases, the key word for lithium battery industry in 2017 is “polarization”. "The low-end repetitive capacity is facing backwards and the power battery industry will undergo major changes in the next three years."

The industry believes that the first few major suppliers accounted for 80% of the market, lithium hexafluorophosphate and the relatively concentrated supply of the diaphragm is relatively better.

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