The central bank suddenly raised interest rates on Wednesday night and the boots finally landed.
On the evening of the 6th, the central bank suddenly announced a rate hike. The rate hike is the third time during the year to raise interest rates, and it is still the sword index inflation. Starting today, the central bank will increase the benchmark deposit and lending rates for financial institutions. The one-year benchmark deposit and lending rates of financial institutions were raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively.
This is the fifth time since the Central Bank last year and is the third time this year to raise interest rates. At this point, the latest one-year renminbi deposit interest rate is 3.50%.
The rate hike by the central bank may trigger concerns about monetary policy tightening, but most experts expect no more rate hikes in the rest of the year.
The symbolic meaning of raising interest rates is greater than the actual significance
On the evening of the 6th, the reporter interviewed a number of economists. For the news of interest rate hike, they do not seem surprised, because the market has long been a voice. However, some experts also stated that the central bank’s non-weekly rate hike is also unexpected.
It is not expected because the economic data for the first half of the year will soon be announced. Many professionals have already predicted that the CPI may reach the highest value in June and the central bank will have to take measures to raise interest rates. Unexpectedly, it means that before the central bank chose the data to raise interest rates, and it was a non-weekly rate hike, this had never happened before.
As for why the interest rate hike, the experts all expressed that they were trying to curb inflation. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of the Bank of China, told reporters that in the current economic operation, inflation is still the biggest threat, and anti-inflation is still our top priority. It is foreseeable that the CPI data in June and July may be renewed. The new high, in this case, a rate increase is a means that is bound to be adopted.
Li Mingliang, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, also pointed out that food prices including pork and food will continue to rise and continue to dominate the fluctuations of CPI. He expects that the domestic CPI will peak in June and then gradually decline; and by November and In December, CPI will decline to 4.2% and 4.1%.
Peng Wensheng, an economist at China International Capital Corporation, said that inflation is the primary policy focus of the Chinese authorities in the short term.
However, Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics and finance at the China Europe International Business School, said that the central bank has only added 25 basis points, obviously not enough. He believes that even if raised by 250 basis points, the real interest rate is still negative. This also means that the adjustment of 25 basis points is tantamount to dealing with macroeconomic problems, and its symbolic significance is far greater than the actual significance.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, believes that this interest rate hike is not aimed at the upcoming June CPI, but it is only a compensation for the rising market interest rate in the previous period. He believes that the current market funds are already very tight, and the room for further improvement in the reserve requirement ratio has been limited, so the central bank has turned to a more modest rate hike.
Or "last time in the year"
As far as the domestic market is concerned, raising interest rates is a long-awaited and long-awaited call. The interest rate hike by the central bank should be good news for banks that generally call for shortages of money. Under the background of monetary tightening this year, especially when the central bank raises the deposit reserve ratio once a month, the pressure on bank deposits is very high.
Is it still going to raise interest rates this year? Many experts have stated that this rate hike will be the last time in the year.
As to whether there is a possibility of raising interest rates in the second half of the year, Lian Ping believes that the rate of increase in prices will slow down and the economic growth rate and capital inflow rate will slow down. Therefore, it is less likely that interest rates will increase.
Ci Jianfang, chief research officer of CITIC Securities and chief economist Zhu Jianfang believes that although each time (the rate hike) is small, but the cumulative effect will also appear, "We believe that this rate increase is likely to be the last time in the year It is very unlikely that interest rates will increase in the second half of the year.
Researcher Mei Xinyu of the Ministry of Commerce also told reporters that this should be the last time in the year. With the end of the second round of quantitative easing, and the unstable prices of primary products, inflation should be at the end. Prices should remain high for some time, but new pressure should be minimal.
However, some experts believe that the rate of increase is still not enough. Xia Bin, the currency member of the central bank, said that the PBoC has decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points since tomorrow, which is not enough. Xia Bin said that continuing to raise interest rates will help resolve the negative real interest rate status.
The person in charge of the Hua'an Vision Investment Consulting Company told reporters that in the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP grew by 9.7% year-on-year, and the year’s economic growth is likely to slow down. In addition, interest rate hikes may also increase the spread between China and other countries, which will increase the pressure of liquidity and appreciation of the renminbi, thereby increasing China's future strategic risks.
The central bank’s interest rate increase measures may also cause concerns about monetary policy tightening. China's manufacturing PMI in June hit a new low of 28 months as orders and manufacturing output growth slowed.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, said that if the rate hike is within expectation, monetary policy will have to be moved only in the near future. Pan Xiangdong said that the interest rate hike is within expectations, because with the end of the hikes, the CPI will likely fall back in July. In general, currency instruments are used when the CPI is high, and it is unlikely that the currency instruments will be used again as the CPI falls. Therefore, monetary policy must be moved only in the near future.
Most experts still expect monetary policy will not continue to tighten. Lu political commissar of the senior economist also expects that the macro policy will be shifted from active tightening to neutrality in the future, and there will be one to two interest rate hikes during the year, as well as raising the deposit reserve ratio three times.
ã€link】
Emerging economies have raised interest rates one after another into June, and emerging economies have continued to raise interest rates. On the 9th of June, the Brazilian Central Bank announced that it raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% again. This is the fourth time the country has raised interest rates during the year. The Brazilian government stated in April that it hopes to control the rapid growth of credit through sustained rate hikes, and in order to control the rapid growth of credit. After controlling prices in the target range in 2012, the Bank of Korea announced on the 10th that the benchmark interest rate will be Up 0.25% to 3.25%. In addition, the Central Bank of India announced on June 16 that in order to control domestic inflation, it has decided to increase its national benchmark interest rate, repurchase rate and reverse repurchase rate, by 25 basis points to 7.50% and 6.50%, respectively. This is the 10th time the bank has raised interest rates since last March.
Also plagued by inflation is the euro zone countries. According to arrangements, the European Central Bank will hold a meeting on interest rates today. Markets are expecting the ECB to announce that the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5% after the 7th monetary policy meeting.
The central bank’s rate hike is still under the background of this large rate hike.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that although the short-term effect of raising interest rates is not obvious, it will have a positive effect on relieving inflation in the coming period, especially in the second half of this year and next year. .
Lian Ping pointed out that several interest rate hikes from the end of last year to this year have led to a significant increase in interest rates and a more pronounced rise in market interest rates. The increase in real interest rates on deposits and loans, especially the sharp increase in interest rates on loans, will also have an impact on the real economy. The corresponding impact.
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said that the central bank’s interest rate hike has an impact on hot money inflows. The United States has implemented a loose monetary policy, which has enabled the renminbi to passively accelerate its appreciation. Foreign hot money has entered China in large numbers, and China’s foreign exchange reserves have continued to increase, causing pressure on the central bank to passively issue currency, which in turn has directly pushed up domestic inflation.
HVAC fittings named air conditioner fittings,produced according to the drawing.hvac fittings,hvac Copper Fittings,air conditioner copper fittings,refrigerator fittings,OEM copper fittings,copper tripod bends,copper u bends,evaporator fittings
hvac fittings,hvac copper fittings,air conditioner copper fittings,refrigerator fittings,copper tripod bends,copper u bends,evaporator fittings,OEM copper fittings
Taizhou Runde Company , https://www.zjbrassfittings.com