The lithium battery industry has encountered "three phases of superposition" How do battery companies break through?

  As the core component of the “three-electric system” of new energy vehicles, the power battery accounts for more than 40% of the total energy vehicle, and is closely related to the cruising range parameters. It can be said that the development of the power battery industry has become the key to whether China can realize the "powerful dream" of automobiles. In recent years, China's power battery industry has experienced the “crazy” in 2015, and “tangled” in 2016. In 2017, it is facing the critical period of “shuffling” in the industry. The impact of policies and markets on the development of the power battery industry is particularly attractive. attention.

With the introduction of the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment policy at the beginning of the year, China's new energy automobile industry entered the subsidy 2.0 era, the so-called “post-subsidy era”. The amount of subsidies is about 20% lower than that in 2016, and the local financial subsidies for bicycles must not exceed 50% of the central government. According to this calculation, the bicycle can generate a price difference of more than 40,000 yuan. At the same time, the threshold for subsidies has increased substantially, the inclusive policy has shifted to the survival of the fittest, and financial subsidies have shifted to market-based incentives.

In the "post-subsidy era", for the power battery companies in the middle of the entire industrial chain, they began to gradually "greenhouse protection", and the situation will also "change the sky." Not only is the back of the abdomen pinched, but profits have shrunk, industry barriers to competition have increased, and market space has become crowded. 2017 has become a special stage of the “three-phase superposition” of the power battery industry, namely “policy digestive period”, “price game period” and “industry reshuffle period”.

The first thing to say is the "policy digestive period." The subsidy New Deal introduced the energy density and other indicators of the battery system for the first time as a subsidy threshold and reference standard, and subsidized 1.1 times the mass energy density of the pure electric passenger car power battery system higher than 120Wh/kg, for the non-fast charge type pure electric bus. The system energy density is higher than 115Wh/kg and is given 1.2 times subsidy. This makes automakers and power battery companies directly face the pressure of retrofitting products, technical routes and even production lines. In fact, most power battery companies have adjusted the product and technology routes in different degrees in the first quarter of 2017, including battery specifications, PACK solutions, and technical routes. These measures of digestive policy are still continuing after the second quarter. Next, the new energy auto industry is likely to face a new round of policy adjustments, which also test the power battery companies in the industry chain.

The second is the "price game period." For power battery companies, the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, electrolytes, and cobalt, which are upstream of the industrial chain, are soaring, which directly increases the cost burden of battery manufacturers. Under the pressure of many manufacturers under the pressure of the industrial chain, they are trying their best to reduce the price of battery manufacturers, and hope to pass the pressure of subsidies to the battery manufacturers. Under this embarrassing situation of "squeeze and press" and "double pinch", power battery companies are caught in the "price game" between the upstream and downstream sides, which is worthy of sustained attention.

The third is the "shuffle period." In 2016, while the power battery industry still maintained a strong momentum of development, there was a structural overcapacity situation. The performance of the dominant enterprises and precision casting products was very scarce, but the low-end products were seriously over-supplied. The introduction of a subsidy new deal and the price game between the upstream and downstream of the industry will further exacerbate the surplus. Under the pressure of policy, market, technology and capital, the power battery industry has entered a severe “shuffle” period. 2017 is the key year of “shuffling” and integration. The whole industry has begun to grow from “barbaric”. Transition to an orderly development.

With the new energy subsidy new policy landing, the "three-phase superposition" has become a crucial period to test whether the power battery companies can achieve coordinated development and multi-win, and they are also facing a cruel "killout". At present, the policy supervision layer is facing higher and higher requirements for battery safety, quality and performance. Products and enterprises that fail to meet the requirements will be abandoned directly by vehicle manufacturers. In this knockout, how do power battery companies seek to break through in the "Red Sea"? The author believes that there are the following important points:

First, rebuilding the battery industry value chain is the key to breaking through the “three-phase superposition”.

As a new disruptive industry, the new energy automobile industry cannot operate in the context of the upstream and downstream trading relationships in the traditional automobile sector. In the elimination game of the inferior and the strong Hengqiang, the most important point is to reconstruct the battery industry value chain, establish an open and win-win industrial ecosystem, and promote the coordinated development of the entire industry. This includes six aspects and factors of policy, market, industry chain, business model, capital and technology. Among them, policy and market are “dual engine”, technology and industry chain support become the key, and capital is the booster.

Therefore, in order to break through the "three-phase superposition" dilemma, power battery companies must consider the use value of the entire life cycle of electric vehicles . In other words, it is necessary to construct a new value chain in the battery industry from the perspective of the whole life cycle, not only to develop products together with downstream car companies, but also to develop and manufacture together with the upstream materials industry to form a healthy industrial ecosystem. To minimize the risk of market and policy fluctuations. This requires the joint efforts of all industrial chains, and it is not possible to harm the development of the entire industry because of individual interests. Only by holding the group to warm up, forming a synergy, and fully promoting the spirit of collaboration, can we remove the development shortcomings and achieve multi-win.

It should be noted that for the coordinated development of the industrial chain, we should think from the perspective of the innovation model. In the current “experience economy” prevailing, OEMs can try to introduce the new application model of “car sharing”, pay more attention to running mileage, users, operation methods, etc., as well as the traditional automobile application mode. The difference is that it will drive upstream enterprises to participate in it, thereby reducing costs within the entire industrial chain, promoting the coordinated development of the entire power battery industry chain, and the establishment of China's new energy automobile industry in the international leading position.

Second, practicing your own internal strength is the key to breaking through the “three-phase superposition”.

At present, the total number of power battery companies in China is close to 200, but the battery manufacturers that can enter the supply chain of mainstream electric vehicle manufacturers account for only about 10%, and the entry into the international supply chain is rare. In the process of competition, the manufacturing capacity, financial strength, market response capability, research and development capabilities, supporting capabilities and brand radiation power of power battery companies are particularly critical. Products that fail to meet market demand and repetitively manufacture low-end products will be eliminated in the industry “shuffle”.

The subsidy of the New Deal is largely inclined to guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen their capacity building to better meet consumer demand. Therefore, power battery companies need to increase their investment in training their own internal strength, put quality and safety in the first place, strengthen process control and optimization, improve the development of the entire industry chain, and deepen the transformation of product technology, technology and routes. Comprehensively reduce product cost pressure and improve battery safety performance, energy density, rate performance, cycle life and other indicators.

Third, maintaining an optimistic attitude is the basis for breaking through the “three-phase superposition”.

Although the entire industry is currently in the process of “blood transfusion”, it should be optimistic to see that the development prospects of the new energy vehicle market are still very broad. Moreover, the subsidy of the new policy has now formed a positive and negative energy, promoting innovation and change in the industrial chain. Therefore, power battery companies should face the situation of change and multi-test with an optimistic attitude, and have enough confidence to break through and win. It should also be noted that as the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles and consumer markets, China has promoted more than one million vehicles, accounting for more than half of the global market. At present, China's industrial structure is facing escalating pressure. Under the grim situation of energy security, environmental damage and traditional overcapacity, the development of new energy vehicles is an important starting point for China to develop a "new economy."

China has now become the world's second largest economy. As a rising power, it is obviously not advisable to rely on the non-renewable traditional energy development path to truly realize the Chinese national rejuvenation. Obviously, "electrical energy replacement" is a very good choice.

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