Although global acrylonitrile consumption reached a record high of 5.17 million tons in 2004, the fastest growth was observed in Asia, particularly in China. However, the latest forecast suggests that global demand will decline slightly by 0.8% to 5.027 million tons in 2005. Despite this, demand growth is still primarily driven by China. In 2005, Asia’s acrylonitrile demand increased by 2.5% to 2.82 million tons, with China alone seeing a significant rise of 12.4%, reaching 1.2 million tons.
In the 1970s, China began establishing acrylonitrile production facilities in cities like Shanghai, Daqing, Fushun, and Jilin. By 2004, the country had 10 production units with a total capacity of 800,000 tons. This year, Sinopec and BP launched a new 260,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile plant in Shanghai. It is expected that by the end of 2005, China's total acrylonitrile production capacity will reach approximately 1.09 million tons, rising to 1.1 million tons in 2006.
China's acrylonitrile output in 2001 was 420,000 tons, with apparent consumption at 680,000 tons and net imports of 260,000 tons. The following years saw steady growth: 518,000 tons produced in 2002, 604,000 tons in 2003, and 712,000 tons in 2004. Apparent consumption rose to 1.03 million tons in 2004, while imports fell by 16% to 318,600 tons. As domestic production increased, China's reliance on imports decreased from 38.7% in 2003 to 30.9% in 2004. The apparent consumption is projected to hit 1.2 million tons in 2005, with import dependency dropping further to 26.7%.
Currently, acrylic fiber is the largest consumer of acrylonitrile in China, accounting for about 80% of total usage. Other major sectors include ABS/SAN resin, acrylamide, and nitrile rubber. In 2005, acrylic fiber production capacity is expected to reach 780,000 tons, with apparent consumption of 600,000 tons. Acrylic fiber demand for acrylonitrile is expected to reach 700,000 tons, while ABS resin production capacity will expand to 1 million tons, requiring around 320,000 tons of acrylonitrile. Acrylamide will consume an additional 100,000 tons, and other applications such as SAN resin and nitrile rubber are expected to use about 180,000 tons.
Differentiated fibers represent a key opportunity for the growth of the acrylic fiber market. The differentiation rate refers to the proportion of new products developed and produced relative to total output. A higher differentiation rate indicates stronger innovation capabilities and competitive advantages. Daqing Petrochemical Acrylic Fiber Factory has been focusing on expanding its domestic market share through differentiated fibers. As of August 2005, the factory achieved a differential rate of 32.4%, placing it among the top performers in the industry.
In 2004, China produced 662,000 tons of acrylic fiber, and the output is expected to rise to 740,000 tons in 2005. By the end of 2005, Jilin Petrochemical Company’s 72,000-ton-per-year acrylic fiber plant will be expanded to 140,000 tons per year. Meanwhile, Shanghai Petrochemical Company’s 200,000-ton-per-year facility will increase to 235,000 tons annually. As a result, China’s acrylic fiber output is expected to reach 830,000 tons in 2006.
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