Although global acrylonitrile consumption reached 5.17 million tons in 2004, marking a record high, the fastest growth was observed in Asia, particularly in China. However, according to recent forecasts, global demand for acrylonitrile is expected to decline by 0.8% in 2005, reaching 5.027 million tons. Despite this overall drop, China remains the main driver of demand growth. In 2005, Asian demand rose by 2.5% to 2.82 million tons, with China alone seeing a 12.4% increase, pushing its demand to 1.2 million tons.
In the 1970s, China began establishing acrylonitrile production facilities in cities like Shanghai, Daqing, Fushun, and Jilin. By 2004, the country had 10 acrylonitrile units with a combined capacity of 800,000 tons. This year, Sinopec and BP launched a 260,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile plant in Shanghai. It is projected that by the end of 2005, China’s total acrylonitrile production capacity will reach approximately 1.09 million tons, rising to 1.1 million tons in 2006.
Looking at historical data, China's acrylonitrile output in 2001 was 420,000 tons, with apparent consumption at 680,000 tons and net imports of 260,000 tons. The following years saw steady growth: 518,000 tons produced in 2002, 604,000 tons in 2003, and 712,000 tons in 2004. Apparent consumption in 2004 reached 1.03 million tons, with imports dropping by 16% to 318,600 tons. As domestic production increased, China’s reliance on imports decreased from 38.7% in 2003 to 30.9% in 2004. It is anticipated that in 2005, apparent consumption will hit 1.2 million tons, with import dependency falling further to 26.7%.
The primary consumer of acrylonitrile in China is acrylic fiber, accounting for roughly 80% of total consumption. Other major sectors include ABS/SAN resin, acrylamide, and nitrile rubber. In 2005, acrylic fiber production and apparent consumption are expected to reach 780,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively, with demand for acrylonitrile reaching 700,000 tons. ABS resin production capacity is set to reach 1 million tons, requiring about 320,000 tons of acrylonitrile. Acrylamide will consume an additional 100,000 tons, while SAN resin and nitrile rubber will account for around 180,000 tons.
Differentiated fibers are playing a key role in the growth of the acrylic fiber market. The differentiation rate reflects the proportion of new products developed and produced relative to total output. A higher rate indicates stronger innovation capabilities and higher value-added products. Daqing Petrochemical Acrylic Fiber Factory has focused on expanding its domestic market share through differentiated fibers. By August 2005, the plant achieved a differential rate of 32.4%, placing it among the industry leaders in China.
In 2004, China produced 662,000 tons of acrylic fiber, with expectations of reaching 740,000 tons in 2005. By the end of 2005, Jilin Petrochemical Company’s 72,000-ton-per-year acrylic fiber plant will expand to 140,000 tons annually. Similarly, Shanghai Petrochemical Company’s 200,000-ton-per-year plant will increase to 235,000 tons by 2006. As a result, China’s acrylic fiber output is expected to reach 830,000 tons in 2006.
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