For the LED industry, the Year of the Horse must be a year of Pentium, but I still have to be careful about the company! Industry experts said that the development of emerging industries has a leap, such as the LED industry has not yet reached maturity, it has entered the integration period. Generally, the development cycle of an industry includes the introduction period, growth period, maturity period, and integration period. The 2014 LED integration year is dangerous and organic.
Experts from the LED Industry Research Institute believe that the LED industry will enter a new golden growth period in 2014. From the perspective of the current industrial situation, the development of all links in the industrial chain has exceeded expectations. It is normal for the product price five years ago to differ from the current one by more than 10 times. The cost performance of LED products has experienced a rapid increase. For example, the LED lighting efficiency has increased from 50 lumens per watt five years ago to more than 100 lumens per watt.
Opportunity LED industry status, experts believe that 2014 LED industry investment should grasp the three main lines, namely upstream (sapphire materials), investment opportunities in the field of lighting, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in the industry.
Upstream of the industrial chain, the current production capacity of sapphire materials as substrates is 80 million pieces, but the actual demand of LED chip factories is 30 million pieces, which has great deviation. At present, sapphire substrate enterprises are losing money, and investment in sapphire field in the future. The opportunity lies in its use on smartphones and smart watches.
In the upstream chip field, there are currently more than 50 companies, and the output value of China's local LED chip companies exceeds 7 billion. Zhang Hongbiao believes that the output value in 2014 is expected to reach 10 billion. Compared with last year, the chip companies will have better days in 2014, and the profit will increase. Chip supply is expected to be a bit tight in the first half of the year, and prices will be stable. But obviously the number of companies is still too much. Compared to sapphire materials, the risk of LED chips can be seen more because of the lack of new demand areas.
The midstream packaging field follows the trend of technology-driven development. In the words of Xiao Xiaoming, the technical director of Ruifeng Optoelectronics, a senior expert who has entered the LED industry for 26 years, no matter what you think about it, the industry will eventually fight for price/performance. According to Xiaoming Xiaoming, the penetration of ChipScale Package (CSP) is the future development trend of the packaging industry. The removal of the substrate and the support, the chip manufacturers do their own packaging, which will be a relatively large competition crisis for traditional packaging companies.
In response to the industry's very concerned Dehao Runda's packaging revolutionary LED flip chip, Yan Xiaoming said that he is optimistic and thinks it is the future industry trend, but now the company can not do it well.
In the field of downstream LED applications, there are currently tens of thousands of companies. Among them, the enterprises with the highest output value of 100 million yuan, but no one with an output value of more than 2 billion. Zhang Hongbiao believes that one of the biggest driving forces in the application field this year is LED lighting. This point has reached a consensus in the industry, but there are differences in the views of the industry on the scale and growth rate of the LED lighting market.
Guan Yong, general manager of Sunshine Lighting, believes that there should be 50 growth in lighting applications in 2014, and good companies will grow at a higher rate. For the outbreak of demand in the lighting sector, the capital market has already been reflected in advance, and 2014 should be the time to cash in performance. Guan Yong said that from the situation in January and February of this year, the performance of the cash is still certain.
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