·Opportunity ·
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the financial crisis sweeping the world has had a profound and significant impact on the world and the Chinese economy. However, in the "winter" that pervades the crisis, we resigned from the old age and ushered in the new year, but also ushered in hope.
Under the background of the deteriorating external economic environment, although China's macro economy will face tremendous downward pressure in 2009, aggressive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will offset some of the economic downside risks. Therefore, most economists predict that although the macroeconomic expectation will really form a "outsole" in the first and second quarter of 2009, the annual GDP will maintain an increase of 8.0% or more.
The rise of new energy in the financial crisis
The global financial crisis was accompanied by the cold wind in this winter, and energy has become one of the most sensitive faces in the crisis. Coal, oil, etc. have rapidly declined after the price surge. What will happen to the energy industry in the coming 2009 and the future?
Agricultural and rural economy will continue to develop rapidly
“Although China’s agricultural and rural economy is currently at a new historical starting point, there are several issues that deserve special attention: downward pressure on prices of agricultural products, increased return of rural migrant workers, blocked exports of advantageous agricultural products, and township and village enterprises and agricultural product processing industries. Difficulties have increased, and the quality and safety of agricultural products have faced new challenges and increased pressure on peasants to increase their income. Faced with various difficulties in 2009, a variety of unfavorable factors have interacted with each other. To achieve stable development of agriculture, farmers must continue to increase their income. Work hard."
The pharmaceutical industry ushered in a "new opportunity"
"There is nothing wrong with it. There is nothing to lose." Will this be the past in 2009?
CICC’s latest 2009 strategy report stated that after the “9.11†incident in 2001 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the US economic adjustment led to a sharp decline in the S&P index, while the S&P Healthcare Health Index remained relatively stable. . In the current round of global financial turmoil and economic downturn, whether the medical and health industry has also become a “safe haven†for investors.
Software industry has a lot to do
While the financial crisis has spread across all walks of life, the software industry cannot be spared. However, Hua Pingyu, vice chairman of the China Software Industry Association, was full of confidence when interviewed by China Economic Weekly. "The future development trend of the software industry is more integrated and more innovative. As long as we adhere to these two points, we will certainly be able to weather the financial crisis."
"Growing growth" supports the "high growth" of the logistics industry
A few days ago, relevant persons from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing told the China Economic Weekly that the impact of global economic slowdown on China's logistics industry is being transmitted from the import and export related industries to the upstream of the industrial chain, from the economically developed eastern region to the central and western regions. Regional transmission is expected to become more apparent in the second and third quarters of next year. At the same time, tremendous opportunities for development in the logistics industry are also taking shape.
2008 was an extraordinary year for China's logistics development. According to statistics from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in the first three quarters of 2008, total social logistics in China increased by 26.7%, the value added of logistics industry increased by 16.8%, and the logistics industry PMI index maintained an average of more than 55% since 2008, but in November alone The operating activity status was 37.6%, which was the double-digit decline in the same period of last year and was the lowest in history.
· Challenges ·
In 2008, we witnessed the power of the international financial crisis. In 2009, we will face greater challenges.
The commercial vehicle market will suffer from a decline in domestic demand, a decline in foreign demand, and a decline in market sentiment after the “pre-consumption†brought about by the implementation of State III emissions. After 2004, the auto industry once again encountered the winter.
In 2009, we are facing an unprecedented adversity. We are learning to seek opportunities from adversity and spend the winter.
Unemployment of migrant workers highlighted
The current financial crisis affects almost all industries in the world, and Chinese companies are naturally unavoidable. A few days ago, Chen Quansheng, counselor of the State Council of China, pointed out that under the weight of the global financial crisis, 670,000 small enterprises in China have been forced to close this year, and about 6.7 million “jobs are evaporatedâ€, making the number of unemployed people far higher than the 830 of official statistics. Million.
In response to this problem, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council during the inspection tour of Chongqing recently specially demanded that enterprises not easily lay off their employees, and they must do everything possible to stabilize employment. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Taxation have also jointly issued notices and adopted five measures to delay the payment of social insurance premiums to reduce the burden on enterprises.
Financial industry encounters new challenges
In 2008, it was an unusual year for the Chinese financial industry.
Since July 2008, the People's Bank of China has reduced the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions four times in a row according to the centralized decision of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, lowered the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans five times, and cancelled the hard constraints on commercial bank credit planning. Guide commercial banks to expand the total amount of loans. At the same time, we must persist in discriminatory treatment, maintain pressure, and guide new credit resources to tilt toward key areas and economic weaknesses.
How can foreign trade be saved?
On December 29, 2008, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that from January 1, 2009, the export tax rebate rate for mechanical and electrical products with high technological content and high added value will be increased. This is after the increase of 3770 export tax rebate rates on December 1st last year, China has raised the export tax rebate rate again, and is also the fourth time in 2008 to raise the export tax rebate rate. Export is one of the “troikas†that drives economic growth. China’s economy’s dependence on foreign trade is as high as 60%. In the complex and ever-changing world economic situation, what are the difficulties faced by exports in 2009? Can China win the "breakout war" for this export?
Real estate industry will end in the second half
In 2008, an extraordinary year. China has suffered severe rain, snow and ice disasters, the “5.12†Wenchuan earthquake and the world financial crisis, and successfully hosted the Beijing Olympic Games. This is a year of disaster and glory. In 2009, in the face of an economic situation that is not optimistic, what is China's real estate?
The automobile industry enters the second winter
Due to the financial crisis environment and various policies, China’s auto market has experienced signs of slowing growth in 2008 after years of rapid growth.
According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September 2008, a total of 510.32 million passenger cars were sold, and sales volume increased by 11.36% year-on-year, which was 12.48 percentage points lower than the increase of 23.84% in the same period of 2007. The sales of commercial vehicles in November 2008 fell directly to levels comparable to those of 2005.
Art market faces adjustment period
In 2008, the market scale of the art market entered the trillion-dollar club, and it has already become another major investment area after the real estate market and the stock market. However, the art market experienced a drastic change in the “Icefire and the Twins†during the year. From the madness at the beginning of the year, it was overwhelming and unstoppable. By the end of the year, the haze was still and the prospects were low.
In spite of this, no one will deny that 2008 is a "big year of art." In fact, it is clear that the art market is difficult to survive in the raging financial turmoil. The year 2008 has already ended. What kind of scene will it be in 2009?
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