Heavy truck sales expects to outperform its peers

Citi published a research report that lowered the investment rating of CNHTC from "buy" to "sell" and lowered the target price from 6.2 yuan to 5.5 yuan, reflecting that the ideal of the stock's sales has been fully reflected.

Citigroup said that its earnings forecasts for 08, 09 and 10 years of the stock have been lowered by 25%, 43% and 45%, reflecting the company’s sales in the first 11 months of this year and the outlook for sales growth of heavy trucks in 2009.

Citigroup estimates that China Sinotruk's earnings for 2009 will remain flat, as sales of heavy trucks are expected to decline by 12% year-on-year, but the sales decline will be offset by increased transmission sales. The bank believes that heavy truck sales growth of Sinotruk will continue to outperform the market.

Citi said that the parent company of the company, Sinotruk Group, acquired the transmission manufacturer Shanxi Datong Gear, and China National Heavy Duty Truck launched the HOWO-A7 heavy-duty truck model in December. The bank believes that two development projects will benefit the stock in the medium term.

Pre-sale paperboard sales rating

Citi published a report to Yulong Paper (02689) with a target price of RMB 1.6 and an investment rating of “Selling”. It is estimated that the average selling price of paper products will continue to be under pressure due to weak export and domestic market conditions. Half-year profit fell by more than 45%.

Citi pointed out that Seri Paper recently announced the early repurchase of 16.25 million U.S. dollars of senior notes, as well as the early repayment of two loans of 100 million U.S. dollars and 720 million Hong Kong dollars respectively, and renewed some repayment terms with the remaining debts and creditors. The bank agreed with the action that it could reduce the pressure on short-term debt and help to seek to modify the terms of the loan and reduce the risk of early debt recovery under the credit crunch.

However, Citi still expressed worries about Zhiying's earnings and gearing ratio. It is estimated that the company's net debt in FY09 rose to RMB 14.5 billion.

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