·The global auto market has entered a period of steady growth, “energy saving and emission reductionâ€
Global car market enters steady growth period PricewaterhouseCoopers data shows that global car sales in 2014 were 86 million units, a 4% increase compared to 2013. China's auto market has reached new highs and sales; the US auto market is in good shape; the European auto market is welcoming; the Japanese auto market has also grown for three consecutive years. As oil prices fall and consumers' purchasing power increases, the global auto market will continue to grow steadily.
PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that from 2015 to 2020, the global automotive market will generally show an increasing trend, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 100 million units by 2020. For the overseas investment and construction problems that the main engine factory is particularly concerned about, PwC analysis, North America and the European Union are the main growth points of global automobiles, but will not be the main market for domestic mainstream auto manufacturers. More opportunities come from South Africa and Eastern Europe. The developing Asia-Pacific, developing Asia-Pacific region including China, India, and ASEAN will contribute 60% of the global auto growth in the next seven years or so.
Due to its proximity to the United States and its position in the North American Free Trade Association, Mexico will be valued as an important automobile producing area in the future. It is estimated that the automobile production capacity will reach 4.5 million units in 2020. Canada and Japan will be countries with a large decline in automobile production.
Automotive environmental protection has become a global topic Although there are regional differences in the global automotive market, the types of automobiles are not the same, but automotive “environmental protection†has become a global topic. Small displacement turbocharged engines will be popular. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the average displacement of global automotive engines will fall from 2.00 to 1.88 liters from 2013 to 2020. On this basis, the penetration rate of turbocharged and direct fuel injection technology will continue to rise. Among them, the proportion of turbocharged models will increase from 27.6% to 35.6%; the proportion of vehicles using direct fuel injection technology will be 37.1%. Sharply rose to 54.2%.
In terms of gearbox, with the continuous pursuit of fuel economy and shifting smoothness, the company is developing towards multiple gears. ZF's 8AT is recently installed on Jeep Free Light, and the manufacturer is still developing 9AT. Volkswagen has also announced plans to develop a 10-speed gearbox. PwC's forecast is in line with the trend we are seeing. The share of 5-speed and 6-speed gearboxes will gradually decrease from 2013 to 2020, especially in 2016-2020, the 9-speed gearbox will gradually be mass-produced. Appeared in the car. In addition, the carrying rate of the continuously variable transmission will also increase.
In terms of models, PwC predicts that by 2020, the market share of gasoline and hybrid vehicles (including micro, medium and strong hybrids) will not change much. Plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles will achieve considerable growth.
Under the general trend of energy conservation and emission reduction, international car companies with advanced technology will be bold; and for domestic independent car companies, the relative backwardness of traditional power technology will become the embarrassment of future development.
China's auto market: second and third-tier cities will become the "main force"
In 2014, the annual sales of cars in 15 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and Nanjing exceeded 200,000. The combined sales of cars in these cities accounted for nearly 30% of total car sales in China. In addition, there are 68 cities with annual sales of 50,000-200,000 vehicles, 119 cities with annual sales of 20,000-50,000 vehicles, 87 cities with annual sales of 1-2 million, and 51 cities. The annual sales of cars are less than 10,000. Of the 340 cities in China, 257 (about 75%) have annual sales of less than 50,000 cars.
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the purchasing power of consumers in first-tier cities in China is increasing, making consumers in such cities supposed to be the “new force†of buying cars. However, due to the introduction of government mandatory measures such as Beijing Yaohao and Shanghai Restricted Purchase, the growth of automobile sales in first-tier cities will be constrained. In comparison, between 2010 and 2014, car sales in China's second- and third-tier cities reached an average growth rate of 65%. In 2014, car sales in second- and third-tier cities accounted for 63% of China's overall car sales.
China's auto overcapacity will peak in 2016 Behind the prosperity of China's auto market, the auto manufacturing industry is brewing a heavy crisis. Overcapacity is one of the biggest risks caused by the development of the industry. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, China's automobile production capacity is approaching 30 million units in 2014, and will reach 35 million units in 2015. By 2020, this number will reach nearly 40 million units. Among them, the situation of overcapacity has become increasingly serious since 2014, and will reach its peak in 2016 – 11 million. In fact, China's overcapacity is not holistic, but structural. Some large car companies are selling well, and may even be unable to keep up with sales. China is more of a small and medium-sized car company, and their sales are few, but they have produced a lot of invalid capacity. This is the reason for the overcapacity of Chinese autos. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the overall capacity utilization rate of Chinese automakers will reach 77% by 2020.
China's auto industry faces serious structural overcapacity. The government, car companies, foreign capital and dealers need to work together to adjust the current unbalanced production capacity structure, eliminate the undesirable factors that lead to overcapacity, and promote the healthy development of the auto industry.
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