Recently, most refiners in the United States have begun converting their MTBE (methyl tertiary-butyl ether) plant to iso-octene, isooctane or alkylate for ethanol blending operations. The declining trend of MTBE production also appeared in Spain, France, Germany and Italy. The encouragement of renewable fuels in European countries has accelerated MTBE's 'end of life'. However, the situation in Asia is exactly the opposite. The market demand and capacity of Asian MTBE represented by China and India are growing rapidly.
According to the latest statistics of DeWitt & Co in Houston, as of 2005, the global MTBE production capacity was 23,798,000 tons/year, of which the United States was 8.37 million tons/year, but the average operating rate of MTBE equipment in the United States was only 62.4% this year. . Market analysts pointed out that due to the impact of the United States environmental protection regulations, the US MTBE demand and output will decline rapidly in the next two years.
De Witt & Co's vice president of fuel, energy and MTBE operations further pointed out that the recently passed U.S. Energy Act of 2005 required the acceleration of the process of replacing MTBE with ethanol as an oxygenated gasoline additive. Although the bill does not prohibit the use of MTBE in gasoline, 26 states have banned the addition of MTBE to gasoline, and most US refineries will stop using the product. Valero, the second largest MTBE producer in the United States, announced in August this year that it will stop production and use of MTBE because the government no longer provides protection for MTBE producers. It is expected that the production of MTBE in the United States will be further reduced next year, and the degree of reduction in production will depend on the conversion rate of existing MTBE plants of refiners. It is understood that the average MTBE production in the United States last year was about 131,000 barrels per day, and it will decline to an average of 90,000 barrels per day next year, and by the beginning of 2007 it will further decline to 23,000 barrels per day. In the past two years in Europe, MTBE production has also declined.
The situation in Asia is completely different. MTBE demand and production capacity in this region are growing rapidly, and the Chinese and Indian markets have performed outstandingly. China's current MTBE capacity is 1.2 million tons/year, which is almost double that of the 612,000 tons/year in 2003. The main reason for the sharp increase in demand is that the development of China's auto industry has boosted the demand for gasoline.
In addition, most Asian countries have signed the Kyoto Protocol, and these member countries promised to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the next few years. Therefore, in the short term, this will lead to an increase in the use of MTBE because ethanol and other alternative fuels are still difficult to meet the needs of the Asian market.
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